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{| class="wikitable" align="right" |- | style="background: #E6E8FA" align= center| '''<big>全球气候变暖</big> ''' |- | [[File:全球变暖1.jpg|缩略图|居中|[http://imgtianqi.eastday.com/res/upload/ue/image/20190123/1548228789719730.jpg 原图链接][http://tianqi.eastday.com/news/52667.html 来自东方天气网图片]]] |- | style="background: #C0C0C0" align= center| |- | align= light| 中文名:全球气候变暖 外文名:Global warming,climate change 解 释:自然现象 原 因:人们焚烧化石燃料和石油等化学物 改善措施:《联合国气候变化框架公约》 影 响:危害生态平衡 |} '''全球变暖''',指的是在一段时间中,[[地球]]的[[大气层|大气]]和[[海洋]]因[[温室效应]]而造成[[温度]]上升的[[气候变化]],为[[公地悲剧]]之一,而其所造成的[[效应]]称之为[[全球变暖效应]]。 在2013年,[[政府间气候变化专门委员会]]第五次评估报告认为,“人类影响极有可能是20世纪中叶以来观测到的变暖现象的主要原因。”<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf|title=IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (AR5 WG1)|last=|first=|date=|publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |page=17|access-date=|quote=It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.}}</ref> 人类的影响包括排放诸如[[二氧化碳]]、[[甲烷]]和[[一氧化二氮]]这样的[[温室气体]],鉴于人类活动在全球变暖中扮演主要角色,这种现象有时候被称为“人为全球变暖”或“人为气候变化”。报告中的气候模型预测总结指出在21世纪,根据温室气体的排放量,全球表面温度有可能进一步上升0.3-1.7°C至2.6-4.8°C。<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf|title=IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis -Technical Summary|last=|first=|date=|publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |pages=89–90|access-date=}}</ref>这些发现已被主要发达国家的科学院所认可,并且没有任何一个国家级或有着国际地位的科学机构对此提出异议。<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/|title=Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming|last=|first=|date=|work=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|access-date=2017-08-07|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180628042920/https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/|archive-date=2018-06-28|dead-url=No|publisher=[[NASA]]}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php|title=List of Organizations |publisher=The Governor's Office of Planning & Research, State of California |access-date=2017-08-07 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20170807111205/https://www.opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php |archivedate=2017-08-07}}</ref> 未来的气候变更及相关的影响将存在地区差异。<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/WGIIAR5-TS_FINAL.pdf|title=IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Technical Summary|last=Field|first=Christopher B.|last2=Barros|first2=Vicente R.|date=|publisher=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |pages=44–46|access-date=|last3=Mach|first3=Katharine J.|last4=Mastrandrea|first4=Michael D.|display-authors=et. al}}</ref><ref>Solomon ''et al.'', [http://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ts.html Technical Summary], [http://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-5-3.html Section TS.5.3: Regional-Scale Projections], in {{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}}.</ref>已经在进行以及预期的影响包括[[海平面上升]]、[[降水]]变更和[[亚热带]]地区的[[沙漠化|沙漠扩张]]。 <ref name="Zeng L17401">{{Cite journal|last=Zeng|first=Ning|last2=Yoon|first2=Jinho|date=2009-09-01|title=Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL039699/abstract|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|language=en|volume=36|issue=17|page=L17401|doi=10.1029/2009GL039699|issn=1944-8007|bibcode=2009GeoRL.3617401Z}}</ref>预计将来陆地变暖情况要比海洋严重,最严重的会是[[北极]],[[冰川]]、[[冻土]]和[[海冰]]将不断缩减。其它地区的改变包括更频繁的[[极端天气]],例如[[热浪]]、[[干旱]]、[[山火]]、[[洪水]]、[[雪暴]]、<ref>On snowfall: * {{cite news|url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123671588|title=Get This: Warming Planet Can Mean More Snow|date=2010-02-15|author=Christopher Joyce|publisher=NPR}} * {{cite news|url=http://phys.org/news/2011-03-global-snowstorms-scientists.html|title=Global warming means more snowstorms: scientists|date=2011-03-01}} * {{cite web|url=http://www.skepticalscience.com/Record-snowfall-disproves-global-warming.htm|title=Does record snowfall disprove global warming?|accessdate=2014-12-14|date=2010-07-09}}</ref>[[海洋酸化]]和因温度变化引起的大规模物种灭绝。对人类重大的影响包括因农作物减产引发的粮食安全危机和海平面上升使得人们[[环境难民|不得不放弃一些人口稠密地区]]。<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Battisti|first=David S.|last2=Naylor|first2=Rosamond L.|date=2009-01-09|title=Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat|url=http://science.sciencemag.org/content/323/5911/240|journal=Science|language=en|volume=323|issue=5911|pages=240–44|doi=10.1126/science.1164363|issn=0036-8075|pmid=19131626}}</ref><ref>{{harvnb|US NRC|2012|p=26}}</ref> 社会对全球变暖的应对措施包括通过削减排放来减缓变化、适应其影响以及未来可能的[[地理工程学|气候工程]]。大部分国家都是[[联合国气候变化框架公约]](UNFCCC)的缔约国,其最终目标是防止危险的人为气候变化,<ref>{{Cite journal | year=2011 | title=Status of Ratification of the Convention | url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/status_of_ratification/items/2631.php | publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change | location=UNFCCC Secretariat: [[Bonn]], Germany | ref=harv }}. 世界上大部分国家是[[联合国气候变化框架公约]](UNFCCC)的缔约国,该公约采用了2°C限制。截至2011年11月25日,一共有195个缔约方(194个国家和一个区域经济一体化组织([[欧盟]]))。</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php|title=First steps to a safer future: Introducing The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change|last=|first=|date=|publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |access-date=2017-08-07|quote=Preventing "dangerous" human interference with the climate system is the ultimate aim of the UNFCCC.|deadurl=yes|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20140108192827/http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/items/6036.php|archivedate=2014-01-08}}</ref>缔约国同意大幅减排是必须的,<ref name="unfccc 2 degrees celsius target"> {{Cite journal | year=2011 | title=Conference of the Parties – Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4 | publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change | location=UNFCCC Secretariat: [[Bonn]], Germany | page=3 | url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2 | format=PDF | ref=harv }} "(……) deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above preindustrial levels" </ref>并且全球升温应该限制在相对于工业革命前2.0°C内,争取控制在1.5°C内。<ref> * {{cite news |url=http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/12/world/global-climate-change-conference-vote/ |title=Final draft of climate deal formally accepted in Paris |last1=Sutter |first1=John D. |last2=Berlinger |first2=Joshua |date=2015-12-12 |publisher=CNN |access-date=2015-12-12 }} * {{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/paris-climate-deal-key-points |title=Paris climate deal: key points at a glance |author=Vaughan, A. |date=2015-12-12 |newspaper=The Guardian |location=London and Manchester |access-date=2015-12-12 |deadurl=no |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20151213005658/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/12/paris-climate-deal-key-points |archivedate=2015-12-13 }}. Archived . </ref>与此同时,一些科学家也质疑2摄氏度的目标。<ref name="Steffen2018">{{cite journal|url=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115|doi=10.1073/pnas.1810141115|journal=PNAS|title=Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene|authors=Will Steffen et al. |year=2018}}</ref> 公众对全球变暖的担心也在增加。一份2015年的[[皮尤研究中心]]报告显示出全球受访者中认可“气候变化是一个非常严重问题”的[[中位数]]比例为54%,受访者的地区差异明显,美国和中国大陆(也是[[各国二氧化碳排放量列表|二氧化碳排放量]]最大的两个地区)的受访者最不担心。<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/11/05/global-concern-about-climate-change-broad-support-for-limiting-emissions/|title=Global Concern about Climate Change, Broad Support for Limiting Emissions|last=Stokes|first=Bruce|last2=Wike|first2=Richard|date=2015-11-05|publisher=Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project|access-date=2017-08-07|last3=Carle|first3=Jill}}</ref> 在1906至2005年间,全球平均接近地面的大气层温度上升了0.74摄氏度。<ref name="grida7">{{cite web | url= http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf | format=[[Portable Document Format|PDF]] | title=关於政策制定者的概要 | work=2007年气候变化-物理基础。由政府间气候变化专门委员会第四个评估报告第一个工作小组提供 | accessdate=2007-02-02 | date=2007-02-05 | publisher=[[政府间气候变化专门委员会]] |quote=The updated hundred-year linear trend(1906 to 2005)of 0.74 °C [0.56 °C to 0.92 °C] is therefore larger than the corresponding trend for 1901 to 2000 given in the TAR of 0.6 °C [0.4 °C to 0.8 °C].}}</ref>普遍来说,科学界发现过去50年可观察的[[气候]]改变的速度是过去100年的双倍,因此推论该时期的气候改变是由[[人|人类]]活动所推动。<ref name="grida7" />
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